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Actually I stand before a level 50 jewel box and try to determine what to do best to open this thing.

I´ve tried lockpicking with a master lockpick, I get the message "too complex".
Now I try to understand the formula of the chance for lockpicking. ( (Stats Modifier * Equipment Modifier * Fatigue Modifier) - Lock Difficulty )
I have Security 24, Agility 40, Luck 42 and 180 of 180 fatigue.
Stats Modifier ( 24 + 40/5 + 42/10 ) * Equipment Modifier ( 1,3 ) * Fatigue Modifier ( 1,25 ) - Lock Difficulty ( 50 ) should be about 8-9% chance for success?
Why then do I get the message "too complex", the chance should be a negative one according to the UESP Morrowind security wiki!

Where is my calculating error?

Could it be your Fatigue Modifier? Where are you getting 1.25 from?

Eh, I think I was scribbling on a scrap of paper trying different things and must have got some numbers mixed up, because when I do it on a calculator I also get 52.